Was Edo-Period Japan Stronger Than America? GDP Cannot Repel the Black Ships

Recently, a famous “eccentric” economist began making another interesting argument.

He has apparently published a book arguing that the conventional history of the Meiji Restoration of 1868 is false. He claims that Japan at the time had a larger population and GDP than the United States, as well as a higher literacy rate.

The conclusion he draws from this is remarkable.

“Japan was a stronger nation than the United States. It did not end its isolation and open its ports because America demanded it. This history has been hidden because the Japanese were brainwashed after World War II.”

Wait a moment.

Do the Black Ships disappear if we place population and GDP figures beside them?

Does a Large Population Make a Country Powerful?

First, there is the claim that Japan’s population was larger than America’s at the time.

That is true.

The population of the United States was about 23 million in 1850, while Japan’s is estimated to have been around 30 million.

Edo-period Japan was by no means a small country.

Japan also had an economy of considerable scale. However, GDP figures for the mid-19th century are retrospective estimates, and whether the Japanese or American total was larger depends on the statistics and year used.

Japan is also said to have had a high literacy rate, but there are no complete statistics that allow the two countries to be compared nationwide using the same standard.

Even so, Edo-period Japan deserves recognition for the level it had reached in education and economic activity.

The problem comes next.

“Therefore, Japan was a stronger nation than the United States.”

How does that follow?

To compare military power, we need to examine warships, artillery, shipbuilding technology, logistics, and the ability to operate a navy.

For some reason, however, this argument decides the contest using only population, GDP, and literacy.

By that logic, a country with a large population could never lose to one with a smaller population.

Apparently, war is a remarkably simple sport.

Why, Then, Did Japan Not Drive Away the Black Ships?

In 1853, Commodore Perry arrived at Uraga, near Tokyo, with a U.S. naval squadron known in Japan as the Black Ships.

The United States had steamships and modern naval artillery, and it used the threat of military power to force Japan into negotiations.

If Japan truly had been stronger than America, Japan’s military government, the shogunate, should have been able to refuse with confidence.

“Go home. Our GDP is larger.”

If that had been enough, it would have been a wonderfully peaceful story.

In reality, however, the shogunate struggled to respond and signed unequal treaties with the United States.

If Japan had been negotiating as an equal, would it have needed to accept such terms?

Japan’s economic strength and its ability to resist the Western powers militarily were two entirely different matters.

I would expect an economist to understand at least that distinction.

America Was Not Yet the World’s Strongest Power Either

There is one interesting point here.

The United States of the 1850s was not yet one of the world’s greatest military powers as it is today.

European powers such as Britain had a much greater presence in naval strength and global influence.

In other words, Japan did not submit to the most powerful country in the world.

Even the United States of that period was able to exert military pressure on Japan.

Is that not the more important part of the story?

Edo-period Japan had a large population, economic strength, and a substantial educational foundation.

But it had not converted those resources into modern naval power.

That is precisely why the Meiji government tried to modernize the military and industry so rapidly.

If we reduce the story to “Japan was already strong,” it becomes harder to explain why Meiji Japan pursued modernization with such desperation.

Every Inconvenient Part of History Becomes “Brainwashing After World War II”

The part that astonished me most was the claim that the Japanese were “brainwashed after World War II.”

According to this argument, a different understanding of history became widespread only because education after World War II concealed the truth.

This is an extremely convenient line of reasoning.

If someone objects, the answer is, “You cannot understand because you have been brainwashed.”

If someone presents historical evidence, the answer is, “Your interpretation of that evidence has been brainwashed.”

The argument can never lose.

But that is not because the theory is correct. It is simply designed to reject any possible falsification.

Perry’s arrival, the shogunate’s diplomatic negotiations, and the text of the unequal treaties were not stories suddenly invented after World War II.

Contemporary records remain not only in Japan, but also in the United States.

If someone wants to overturn all of that and claim that Japan was actually stronger, they need to present evidence strong enough to support the claim.

Not the magic phrase “brainwashing after World War II.”

Contrarian Arguments Could Use a Little More Intelligence

I think there is value in questioning conventional historical wisdom.

Edo-period Japan was wealthier than many people assume. Its educational level was high. The foundations for modernization already existed before the Meiji Restoration.

Research into those subjects is valuable.

But the moment someone leaps from that to “Japan was actually stronger than America,” the argument goes wrong.

Having a larger population is not the same as being able to win a war.

Having a larger GDP is not the same as possessing modern warships.

A high literacy rate does not increase the range of a cannon.

I never expected to have to explain something so obvious to an economist.

Then again, perhaps this kind of contrarian argument is excellent as a business model.

“Edo-period Japan had considerable economic strength” would remain a modest piece of historical research.

But turn it into “Japan was stronger than America! The truth hidden by brainwashing after World War II!” and it immediately becomes sensational.

I see. At the very least, he understands how to attract attention.

But if he truly believes that Edo-period GDP could repel the Black Ships, I hope he will use his economic theory to persuade Perry next time.

Tell him to go home because we are richer.