How Many Times Is Xi Jinping Going to Fall from Power? “China's Collapse” Has Become a Social Media Staple
Apparently, Xi Jinping is about to fall from power again.
I was looking at social media when I saw a flood of posts making that claim. Something is wrong with military personnel decisions. He is attending fewer important meetings. Party elders are making moves. He has lost control of the military. If you read the details, each claim comes with a plausible-sounding explanation.
When I first began seeing stories like these, I would read them and wonder, “Is something happening?”
But by now, there have simply been too many.
Even in my own memory, Xi Jinping has come close to losing power many times, and the Chinese Communist Party has repeatedly stood on the verge of collapse. Yet after a while, Xi Jinping appears in public as China’s president as usual.
These days, instead of thinking, “Has it finally happened?” my first thought is, “How many times has it been now?”
An Alarm Sounded Too Many Times Will Not Be Trusted in a Real Emergency
The trouble with stories like these is that, even if genuine information eventually appears among them, we may no longer recognize it.
If people repeatedly hear “China is collapsing,” “Xi Jinping is about to fall,” and “Something serious is happening inside the Communist Party,” only for nothing to happen each time, they become accustomed to the warnings.
Even on the day when something truly significant occurs, their reaction will be:
“Sure, sure. China is collapsing again.”
That is how people will react.
It is the boy who cried wolf all over again.
Social media also makes it convenient to forget failed predictions. Someone who posted “Xi Jinping’s fall is imminent” last year can post “Xi Jinping is finally falling” this year, while last year’s post has long since disappeared into the distance.
It is a convenient system for the people making predictions.
And after seeing the same story repeated this many times, I have come to think that “China’s collapse” is no longer merely news. It has established itself as a content genre.
On YouTube, there is no shortage of titles such as “China’s Economy Is Collapsing,” “Cracks Inside the Communist Party,” “Public Anger Is About to Explode,” and “Something Is Wrong with Xi Jinping.”
Judging by the titles alone, China seems to face a crisis threatening its very existence almost every week.
People Click the Story They Want to See, Not the Most Accurate Information
Why do these stories appear so repeatedly?
The simple answer is that there is demand for them.
People like stories they want to see. If they dislike a company, they want to read an article saying it is on the verge of bankruptcy. If they dislike a celebrity, a headline announcing a collapse in popularity catches their attention.
The same is true for people who feel strong hostility toward China.
The description “China’s economy continues to operate on an enormous scale despite its problems”
is less satisfying than:
“China is finally heading for collapse.”
The latter feels better.
These stories are also exceptionally well suited to social media.
The cautious statement “There are multiple accounts of China’s political situation, and at present it has not been confirmed that any major change has occurred in the power structure of the top leadership”
sounds too weak.
The headline “Is Xi Jinping about to fall?”
sounds much stronger.
It is short. It is easy to understand. It makes you want to keep reading.
And once you watch one video like that, your recommendations begin filling up with similar content: first “Something Is Wrong with Xi Jinping,” then “Is There a Coup Inside the Communist Party?”
After a while, China really does appear to be on the verge of collapse—at least on your timeline.
China has not changed.
Only your screen has changed.
Even If Xi Jinping Falls, the Story May Not End the Way People Expect
Something else concerns me. Even if the latest claim about Xi Jinping losing power is true, it does not necessarily follow that events will reach the conclusion people online are hoping for.
The disappearance of Xi Jinping would not mean the disappearance of the Chinese Communist Party.
Nor would China suddenly become a Western-style democracy.
There is no guarantee that the next leader would be friendly toward Japan. If the power struggle within China intensifies, the result could be even more troublesome for Japan.
Yet online:
Xi Jinping falls from power ↓ The Chinese Communist Party falls into chaos ↓ China grows weaker ↓ Good news for Japan
somehow comes as a complete package.
If real-world international politics followed such a neat syllogism, experts would have a much easier job.
Moreover, if China truly descended into severe turmoil, Japan would not be in a position to laugh.
China is not a distant country with no connection to Japan. Japanese companies do an enormous amount of business there, and the two countries are deeply connected through components, finished products, logistics, tourism, and financial markets.
If the huge economy next door took a spectacular fall, the result would not be:
“Great, Japan wins.”
That is not what would happen.
That would be like celebrating a major fire in the apartment next door because you disliked the neighbor.
The smoke would reach your home too.
“China’s Collapse” Has Become a Never-Ending Serial Drama
When I think about it, this kind of content already has a finished script.
First, some bad news comes out of China. Someone who appears to be an expert explains, “This is a serious sign.” We are then told that the internal turmoil is even worse than anyone imagined, and the story ends with, “The regime may finally be reaching its limit.”
The plot is more or less the same every time.
If this were an overseas television drama, viewers would probably be getting tired of the pattern by now, and the show would be heading for cancellation. But the China-collapse series remains strong.
After all, the final episode never arrives.
I do not know whether the latest rumors about Xi Jinping losing power are true. The power relationships within the Chinese Communist Party are difficult to see from the outside. Major changes may genuinely be underway, and perhaps people will later look back and say, “Those rumors were the first sign.”
But when the same words are used repeatedly, the words themselves lose value.
“Collapse.” “Downfall.” “Coup.”
All of them originally describe events serious enough to shake a nation, yet they have become thoroughly cheapened.
And sometime next month, another “serious development” will probably begin circulating.
I will probably read about that one too.
Not because I believe it.
I am beginning to enjoy finding out what will supposedly cause Xi Jinping to fall from power this time.
If he can fall from power this many times, then in a sense, Xi Jinping’s political life must be remarkably resilient.
An ordinary politician is finished after falling from power once.